Trump Shines in New York

While polls are never one hundred percent accurate, they do act as some sort of crystal ball before election or caucus day in a primary. So that is why, right before the New York primary, Donald Trump is already having a good week. A candidate winning their home state is crucial in an election, especially in this one.

If you look at what has already happened this primary cycle, home state wins have been a key to success. Cruz gained extra momentum in his campaign when he won Texas, and Rubio called it quits when he lost Florida. Kasich got his only win in his home state of Ohio, which is enough to keep his campaign hoping for a brokered convention where he would be the top choice. For these reasons, Trump needs to win New York in order to get that extra push he needs right now with only four months left till the convention.

While Colorado has been the talk of the news as an example of “party bosses” rigging the system, it has been relatively let go because of the focus on New York. New York, like Texas and Florida and California, is a crucial state for electoral college numbers in the general election. To see how Trump matches up against Clinton will be a big indication of what we could expect if the two were to compete against one another for the Oval Office. And while Trump’s numbers look like an easy win, Clinton is having a harder time against Sanders in her home state. Clinton was a senator in New York before becoming Secretary of State, and she will also need a big win against her opponent so her campaign also gets that extra push. For this reason, Clinton has ramped up her attack ads against Trump, almost as a reminder that voters need to think hard if they think Sanders can beat Trump in the general election.

All eyes will be on New York tomorrow. The New York primary rules make it so you can only vote within your party, so this will shed even more light on what the Independents think. There has been relatively no news about Cruz in New York, as his comment about “New York Republicans” left a bad taste in the Empire State’s mouth.

Tomorrow will be another one of those big primaries like Florida, and will change the primary for every candidate. Cruz has two new victories under his belt through delegate votes, so the senator does not seem too worried about tomorrow. Kasich needs to fair well if he want to appeal to moderate Republicans and keep his campaign moving forward to the convention in Ohio. As July approaches, the stakes are getting higher and higher, and the fate of the Republican Party is still very much up in the air.