February 02

Top Takeaways From Iowa

Today, Donald Trump was leading with double digits in all the Iowa polls, leading everyone to believe he would take the state easily. With 99% of the Iowa Caucus complete, it looks like the winner is not Donald Trump, and instead, is Senator Ted Cruz.

What are the top takeaways, then, from this Iowa Caucus?  This race is going to be a free for all.

While Cruz came in from behind, and took first place from the poll leader tonight, this just shows that there is no rhyme or reason really behind polls, and that the election day can be completely different from the political guesses. Cruz was in a solid second place, but there is no way to predict that he would come out on top this evening when the polls showed that he would not. Furthermore, Cruz appeals very much to a certain type of voter that he might not find too easily in the next primary states. Governor Jeb Bush, for example has already traveled as was giving a speeches today in Manchester, New Hampshire. He knew that he did not have a chance in Iowa, and thought it would be a better use of his time to really get voters on his side in New Hampshire.

Furthermore, while Donald Trump might get the most media attention, he might end up getting second place in many of the primary states. It is almost like each state has picked a candidate that they most identify with in the Republican Party, which truly shows how diverse the field is.

And while Iowa is the start of the race, if the candidate is too polarizing, it could be the only state they win. Take Huckabee, for example. He won the Iowa Caucus eight years ago, and tonight, declared he would suspend his run for the presidency. The Iowa Caucus in no way solidifies a win for the presidency, but it helps with the initial momentum to get moving.

An example for this theory, is that the big news tonight besides the Iowa Caucus results, is the rumor that Senator Tim Scott from South Carolina will endorse Senator Marco Rubio. This hints that Rubio is expected to win this state.

While Iowa is the beginning and very important for the start of the primary election, it is in no way a deal breaker. If Cruz could carry both Iowa and New Hampshire, it would be a different story. But the fact that Cruz took Iowa and likely a very different candidate will take New Hampshire, is a clear example of how diverse the Republican voter is, and how many factions are within the party. To make it out of the Republican primary without contradicting yourself is almost impossible (think Romney), because of this array of different political values. Iowa showed tonight just this, and also showed that political polls are not as accurate as you may think.