The Real Reason to Push Iowa and New Hampshire
There is so much media attention, polls, and political push when it comes to Iowa and New Hampshire. For months before these two primary vote days, politicians flock to small town meetings and make speeches. So why is it just for these two states? Because these two states can make the rest of a candidate’s year so much easier, and also destroy other’s hope for the nomination.
For the Republican Party, these two states represent, more or less, the two types of Republican voters. Iowa is more socially conservative, home to many evangelicals who find themselves on the far right of the political spectrum. New Hampshire holds a more moderate Republican, with a focus on national security and the economy. For this reason, people like Ted Cruz spend more time in Iowa, and people like Governor Kasich spend most of their campaign money on attack ads to air in New Hampshire. If a candidate fails to do well in either of these states, it is more or less expected for them to drop off. While these states of course do not make or break a candidate, they are a taste of what is to come in the future, and how you can expect other states to vote depending on who closely they align with either type of Republican.
But the real winning streak, for any candidate, is to be able to win both states . Like John Kerry in 2004, his two primary scores in Iowa and New Hampshire basically defined him as the Democrat nominee. It is expected that a candidate wil either identify with Iowa or New Hampshire, so winning them both, is a serious victory.
For this reason, Donald Trump has been jetting his Boeing 737 private jet between both Iowa and New Hampshire, while also making time to travel to South Carolina and North Carolina. The polls put the billionaire ahead in both Iowa and New Hampshire, and if he wins both these states, everyone should expect that there is a very good chance he will take the nomination.
Other candidates who are rising in the polls, such as Kasich, will need at least a second place victory in New Hampshire if they want to stay in the race. This goes for Governor Chris Christie too. At this point, if no candidate takes both states, second place is a good position to be in.
From months of polling and guessing, the time is finally coming close to really see results. After Iowa and New Hampshire, he race will drastically narrow down, and there will be actual votes instead of abstract statistics.
So for now, the candidates will have to go all in, giving all they have because it is now or never. For someone like Trump, it could make his campaign much easier in the long run, and he can return his attention to attacking Clinton. For others, this might be there final weeks in the primary race, and will have to focus on a VP spot, or possibly taking a much needed vacation.